A roofer standing on your roof today sees one moment. The thing that actually answers this question is the record of what has happened over ten years — and almost nobody keeps one.
There is a straightforward economic version of this question — what repairs cost against what replacement costs, and how to think about money already spent — and we have written it up properly in our repair or replace guide.
This is the other half, and it is the half people usually lack. Not what the repairs cost, but what the sequence of them is telling you.
A roofer on your roof sees its condition today. That is genuinely informative, especially from inside the loft, and it is the right starting point.
What it cannot show is rate of change. A roof that has been in exactly this condition for eight years and a roof that arrived here in eighteen months look identical on the day, and they are completely different propositions. Only the history separates them.
Plot each failure onto a rough sketch of the roof. Two very different pictures emerge, and they point in opposite directions.
Repeated failures at the same chimney, the same valley, the same abutment. That is one unresolved defect being patched rather than diagnosed — a flashing that was never properly formed, a valley that silts up because of an overhanging tree, a gutter that overflows onto the same rafter end every winter.
This is not a case for replacement. It is a case for someone to find the cause and fix it once. A whole new roof with the same badly formed detail in it will do the same thing again.
Failures in unrelated places, on different slopes, with nothing connecting them. That is the serious pattern, and it means the problem is in something present across the whole roof — the fixings, the battens or the underlay — surfacing wherever the roof happens to be most exposed.
There is no repair for that, because the fault is not in the places that have failed. It is in the places that have not failed yet.
Against each event, write down what the weather had been doing. Then count how many had an identifiable cause — a named storm, a fallen branch, a blocked valley, a gutter that had been overflowing for a year — and how many just happened.
Failures with causes are events. A roof that loses two slates in an exceptional gale has behaved normally.
Failures without causes are the roof running out. Every fixing went in at the same time and has sat in the same conditions since, so they corrode together and reach the end together. An uncaused failure is the leading edge of that.
Put the dates in order and look at the gaps rather than the count.
| What the intervals do | What it means | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Stable or lengthening | The repairs are solving things | Carry on repairing |
| Roughly steady, one unresolved location | A diagnosis problem | Get the cause found |
| Shortening | Deterioration outrunning the patching | Price a replacement |
| Two in one season, after years of quiet | Something has changed | Get it assessed properly |
Shortening intervals are the clearest signal on this list, because they are independent of how much any individual repair cost. They say the underlying deterioration is now moving faster than the work being done about it.
This one is less well known and it is worth checking, because it separates a roof problem from a water problem.
If successive failures appear progressively lower on the same slope — a slipped slate high up one year, a damp patch at mid-height the next, a soft rafter end at the eaves the year after — that is not three problems. It is one, following the water down.
Water that gets past the covering runs down the underlay until it finds a lap, a tear or a batten to sit on. The damage appears wherever it stops, which is not where it got in. Repairs aimed at the visible damage will keep missing.
Rafter ends at the wall plate are where this ends up, and it is the point at which the job stops being roofing and starts being carpentry. That is worth catching early.
Read across all four rather than acting on one:
And one thing the history cannot tell you: the state of the underlay and the timbers. That needs twenty minutes in the loft, ideally during heavy rain, when active water is obvious. The record tells you the trend; the loft tells you where you are on it.
Two separate systems. Planning: a like-for-like re-roof does not materially affect the external appearance of a building, so under section 55 of the Town and Country Planning Act 1990 it is not development at all and needs no permission. A visible change of covering can be a different matter, particularly inside a conservation area, where the test is applied more tightly.
Building regulations: where more than 50% of the roof's surface area is renewed, or the work forms part of a major renovation, regulation 23 of the Building Regulations 2010 requires the roof to be brought up to current thermal standards so far as that is technically, functionally and economically feasible — 0.16 W/(m²K) for a roof in an existing dwelling. A patch repair does not trigger it, and neither does a roof over unheated space such as a detached garage.
Tell us what has been done and when, and we will tell you what the pattern means.
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